There is a likelihood of heavy rainfall pounding the coastal strip for two days (Wednesday 8th October and Friday 9th October 2015). This will accompanied with strong winds and moderate to rough seas from Thursday, 08 October to Friday, 09 October 2015, according to the Meteorological Department.
1. Current situation and expected condition for next one week
The onset of the short rains over most parts of the country including the coastal strip and the northeastern areas was forecasted to be within the first and second week of October. Heavy rainfall events (≥ 20mm in 24hrs) have started occurring in various parts of the country from the beginning of this month. This is an indication towards the gradual onset of the 2015 “Short Rains” season.
The Meteorological Stations that have so far recorded ≥ 20mm in a day include: Marsabit and Moyale with 54.2 mm and 30.7mm respectively on 4th October; Kericho with 40.8mm on 1st October; as well as Meru and Kangema with 32.1mm and 23.0mm respectively on 3rd October. Some parts of the coast have been experiencing light rainfall in the first four days of this month.
2. Detailed forecast for the Coastal strip for the next 7 days (6th to 12th October 2015
Current models are indicating likelihood of enhanced rainfall along the coastal strip from the Wednesday 7th to Friday, 9th October 2015 with various parts being pounded by over 20mm of rainfall in day.
The detailed forecast for the next 7 days (6th to 12th October 2015) is provided in the Table below.
6th Oct. 2015
Generally dry conditions over most parts of the coast.
7th Oct. 2015
A pick up in rainfall activities in the morning with some locations receiving 10mm of rainfall. Heavy rainfall will mainly be offshore.
8th Oct. 2015
Enhancement of rainfall from heavy storms leading to very heavy rainfall (≥ 50mm in 24 hours) being observed over some locations in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, and extreme eastern parts of Tana River counties. The rainfall amounts in the North Coast (Lamu County) will be relatively lower but still there are areas expected to receiver heavy rainfall (≥ 20mm)
9th Oct. 2015
Heavy rainfall to persist but with slightly reduced intensities. The heaviest events (≥ 50mm) are expected in South Coast (Kwale and parts of Mombasa).
10th Oct. 2015
General reduction in the heavy rainfall events but persistence in wet conditions with most areas recording rainfall in the range 10 – 20 mm.
11th Oct. 2015
Generally light morning showers over most locations
Monday, 12 Oct. 2015
A pick up in rainfall over the North Coast where some locations are expected to record heavy rainfall (≥ 20mm). Light to moderate rainfall over the other coastal areas.
Mr. James G. Kongoti
DIRECTOR, KENYA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF KENYA WITH THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION