2022 could see Kenya having the first female Deputy President if the two leading candidates for the Presidential race, Deputy President William Ruto and Raila Odinga choose to have female running mates.
According to a recent opinion poll by TIFA Research, in case the general election is held today, Ruto would lead with 38 percent of the vote followed by Raila with 27 percent. Kalonzo Musyoka of the Wiper Democratic Party would come a distant third with two percent of the votes.
The most preferred female candidates for the running mates positions are Kirinyaga Governor Ann Waiguru for William Ruto at 40 percent while Martha Karua leads for Raila at 44 percent. Karua features for both candidates with a lower score for Ruto at 16 percent.
Others include Alice Wahome (10 percent) Susan Kihika (three percent) for Ruto and Charity Ngilu (28 percent) and Sabina Chege (seven percent) for Raila.
“Martha Karua is considered the most electorally beneficial female deputy running-mate for Raila Odinga. Notably, there are more males than females respondents with a preference for Martha Karua,” the research found.
“Anne Waiguru has the highest mentions for the most electorally beneficial deputy running mate for William Ruto. Although Martha Karua is currently in OKA, she is still mentioned as a possible ideal running mate to Ruto.”
In general, for Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi is the leading running mate candidate at 27 percent followed by Waiguru at 15 percent while Rigathi Gachagua comes third at 11 percent.
Kalonzo who features for both Ruto and Raila is fourth on Ruto’s side with eight percent, and second on Raila’s side with 18 percent. Peter Kenneth is the leading running mate candidate for Raila with 41 percent while Karua is third with 13 percent followed by Ngilu at five percent.
The Mt Kenya region, which is touted as a “swing” vote region due to the absence of a strong Presidential candidate, has at least seven candidates battling to deputise the two leading candidates.
For Ruto, Ann Waiguru shares the top spot with Rigathi Gachagua at 31 percent followed by Ndindi Nyoro and Martha Karua at 11 and 10 percent respectively.
On Raila’s side, Peter Kenneth leads at 41 percent followed by Martha Karua at 29 percent. Lee Kinyanjui is third with four percent while Nderitu Muriithi is fourth with one percent.
UDA is the most popular party at 35 percent while the official Opposition party, ODM, attracts the second-highest level of public support at 24 percent. Those declining to declare their support for any party are even more numerous at 26 percent.
Over the last eighteen months, the two most dramatic changes in the popularity of political parties have been the decline of Jubilee (from 40 percent to four percent) and the appearance/rise of UDA (from nothing to 35 percent), making it currently the most popular party. At the same time, ODM’s popularity has doubled from 12 percent to 24 percent.
