The Nairobi governorship contest would be too close to call if elections were to be held today.
According to a survey done by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), Governor Evans Kidero will win the elections with 44 percent of the votes compared to his main rival, Senator Gideon Mbuvi who polled 43 per cent.
Independent candidates Peter Kenneth and Miguna Miguna will be disappointed with the poll as they garnered four per cent and one per cent respectively despite their efforts to traverse the county for campaigns.
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According to the survey, poor leadership skills, a dirty city, corruption, poor relations with the low-class people and no development agenda are some of the factors that will work against Evans Kidero in his bid to reclaim the seat.
The hooliganism trait exhibited by Sonko will work against him with immaturity in politics, low education level and lack of expertise being the other factors undermining his candidature.
The political party supremacy battle in the city was won by the National Super Alliance (Nasa) with 56 per cent preference compared to Jubilee’s 42 per cent.
It is a big win for Nasa as Nairobi County is seen as a ‘swing’ county by many who believe that the votes can go either way. The win can be attributed to the big chunk of constituencies that Nasa led in the survey with 10 compared to Jubilee’s four.
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TIFA identified Westlands, Makadara and Embakasi sub-counties as battle grounds in which if either Jubilee or NASA apply good strategies they can claim them.
A further insight into the poll pits the senatorial candidates in which Johnson Sakaja garnered 39 per cent compared to Edwin Sifuna’s 28 per cent.
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The surprise statistic is probably the Women Representative survey in which Esther Passaris got 59 per cent compared to 25 per cent for Rachael Shebesh. Funny enough, media personality Maina Kageni, who jokingly announced his candidature through radio, is at par with the wiper candidate Rachael Ndambuki at one per cent.
Interestingly, 97 per cent of those interviewed said that they will turn out to vote. This compared to the percentages that turn out to vote during elections shows a big difference margin.
TIFA noted that the sample population was 829 people across the 17 sub-counties in Nairobi.
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