James Orengo’s declaration that he will seek the presidency in 2027 has introduced an intriguing twist into the unfolding Linda Mwananchi story and the national politics in general.
The Siaya Governor has not just joined an already crowded list of presidential hopefuls. It is notable that he has done so from within a political movement whose leaders had, only weeks earlier, appeared to be rallying around Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.
On July 27, at a Linda Mwananchi rally in Bungoma, Orengo described himself as the leader of the movement and pledged to stand with Sifuna “all the way” in the journey to 2027. At the same gathering, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya said he had abandoned his own presidential ambitions to support Sifuna, while Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi was among those openly backing the senator.
August 28 seemed to change the tide in the Linda Mwananchi camp. Speaking at the burial of KDF officer Steven Onyango in Oyugis, Homa Bay County, Orengo told Senator Moses Kajwang that he was a serious presidential candidate.
He framed his ambition as part of the political struggle associated with Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Tom Mboya, Argwings Kodhek and the late Raila Odinga, arguing that the Luo community had made enormous sacrifices in the pursuit of democracy, justice and human rights.
One wonders what happened between Bungoma and the Homa Bay declaration. Politics, particularly coalition politics, is fluid. Could Orengo have suddenly concluded that he could not simply sit back and support another candidate without first establishing his own claim to the presidency?
Political pundits may opine that his ambition is mere bargaining chip. On the other hand, Orengo has been in national politics for decades, has served as senator and governor, contested the presidency before and built a political reputation around constitutional reform and the struggle for democratic rights.
At this stage of his career, it is possible that he genuinely believes he should make another attempt at the country’s highest office. There is also the question of political testing. Orengo now has an opportunity to find out whether the political stature accumulated over decades can be converted into a national constituency.
Can he persuade Nyanza that he is more than a custodian of the old reform tradition? Can he reach voters in Western Kenya and beyond? And can an experienced politician of his generation compete with Sifuna’s appeal among a younger and more impatient electorate?
His appeal to the history of Luo political sacrifice adds another dimension. By invoking Jaramogi, Mboya, Kodhek and Raila, Orengo is placing his candidacy within a long political tradition rather than presenting it simply as a personal ambition.
That may resonate strongly within Nyanza, but it raises a more difficult national question: whether a claim built around regional political history can be converted into a sufficiently broad national proposition.
If his focus is on the wider political picture, the reactions from the Sifuna camp within Linda Mwanachi are notable. Barely two days after Orengo announced his bid, Babu Owino was in Meru publicly reaffirming his support for Sifuna, saying he was behind him fully. Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya also reaffirmed his support, while Osotsi and other leaders continued to endorse the Nairobi senator.
Babu’s intervention is especially telling because it came at a time when questions had been raised about whether differences were emerging among the Linda Mwananchi principals. Instead of distancing himself from Sifuna, he sought to close ranks around him and warned against what he described as double loyalty within the movement.
The message from Natembeya is equally notable. The politician who had publicly said he was shelving his own presidential ambitions in Sifuna’s favour has now again thrown his weight behind him, even as Orengo seeks the same position. This suggests that Orengo’s declaration has not automatically altered the political centre of gravity within Linda Mwananchi.
Linda Mwananchi has been successful partly because it has allowed politicians with different histories and ambitions to occupy the same political space under a common anti-establishment message.
Orengo’s declaration could weaken Linda Mwananchi, but it could also force the movement to mature politically. For Sifuna, the challenge is now to demonstrate that the enthusiasm around him is sufficiently deep to survive the entry of a veteran politician with a long national record. The reception Sifuna continues to receive in different counties will matter even more as the contest develops.
For Orengo, the test is equally demanding. He will need to demonstrate that his ambition extends beyond the political history and emotional appeal of Nyanza and can command support from Kenyans who do not share his regional or generational background.
For Linda Mwananchi, however, the burden is greatest. The movement has spent months building itself as a vehicle for political change. It must now show that it can accommodate competition among its principals without allowing that competition to destroy the common cause.
Read: Governor Orengo’s 2027 presidential bid ignites Linda Mwananchi members
>>> MPs Quietly Back Linda Mwananchi Movement but Fear Reprisals, Claims Sifuna
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