Security agencies have intensified surveillance of politicians, student leaders, activists and community organizers ahead of the planned June 25 demonstrations, amid growing concerns about potential disruptions to transport networks, businesses and economic activity across several parts of the country.
According to intelligence assessments reviewed by Business Today, authorities are closely monitoring mobilization efforts linked to the anniversary of the June 2024 anti-Finance Bill protests, which are expected to attract participants in Nairobi and at least 16 counties.
The report alleges that opposition-aligned politicians, youth groups, civil society organizations and student leaders are coordinating efforts to maximize turnout for the demonstrations, with mobilization concentrated around major urban centers and transport corridors.
Security officials are particularly concerned about the possibility of protests disrupting business operations in Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru, Kisumu, Eldoret and other commercial hubs that contribute significantly to the country’s daily economic output.
Nairobi as Main Flashpoint
According to the assessment, Nairobi remains the primary area of concern, with planned commemorative activities expected around Parliament Road, Jevanjee Gardens and the National Archives precinct.
Authorities believe organizers have focused their efforts on key entry routes into the city, including Thika Road, Waiyaki Way, Mombasa Road and Jogoo Road, where large numbers of demonstrators are expected to converge.
Business owners in the capital are already taking precautionary measures, with some firms considering remote working arrangements and reduced operating hours amid fears of possible disruptions.
The intelligence report warns that any major interruptions along Nairobi’s transport corridors could affect the movement of workers, goods and services, potentially impacting economic activity in the country’s largest commercial center.
Universities and Youth Networks
Security agencies have also placed several university student leaders under observation over alleged efforts to mobilize students for the demonstrations.
Institutions in Nairobi, Rift Valley and other regions have reportedly become focal points for mobilization through student networks and social media platforms.
Authorities believe youth-led movements that emerged following the 2024 protests are playing a significant role in organizing activities and commemorative events ahead of the anniversary.
The report indicates that organizers are planning public gatherings, memorial activities and candle-lighting ceremonies to honor those who died during last year’s demonstrations.
Concerns Over Transport and Trade
Beyond Nairobi, security assessments identify potential protest hotspots in Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado, Makueni, Nakuru, Laikipia, Mombasa, Kisumu, Vihiga, Narok and Trans-Nzoia counties.
Several towns including Thika, Kitengela, Mlolongo, Machakos, Wote, Emali, Nakuru, Naivasha, Gilgil, Kitale, Eldoret, Kisumu and Narok have been flagged as areas where demonstrations could affect transport and commercial activities.
Intelligence officials claim some mobilizers are encouraging road barricades and demonstrations along key highways and transport routes, a development that could affect logistics, trade and commuter movement.
The assessment also raises concerns about the possibility of criminal elements infiltrating demonstrations to engage in looting, vandalism and destruction of public and private property.
Civil Society Activities Monitored
The report further indicates that several civil society organizations have been actively amplifying narratives centered on victims of the June 2024 protests as part of broader mobilization efforts.
According to the assessment, community-based organizations and advocacy groups are planning awareness campaigns, memorial activities and public engagement initiatives in the lead-up to the anniversary.
Security agencies are also monitoring foreign-funded governance and human rights programs that authorities believe are supporting civic engagement activities linked to the commemorations.
Economic Stakes High
The heightened security monitoring comes against the backdrop of growing concerns over the economic cost of demonstrations.
Business groups have repeatedly warned that disruptions to transport, trade and commerce can result in significant losses for enterprises, particularly in major urban centers where thousands of businesses depend on uninterrupted movement of customers, employees and goods.
The June 2024 protests, which culminated in the storming of Parliament, triggered widespread disruptions across the country and left dozens dead, according to rights groups and official reports.
As the anniversary approaches, both security agencies and business stakeholders are keenly watching developments, with authorities maintaining that while citizens have a constitutional right to peaceful assembly, any acts of violence, vandalism or economic sabotage will not be tolerated.
With Nairobi and several key economic hubs expected to witness heightened activity, the June 25 demonstrations are shaping up as a major test of the country’s ability to balance constitutional freedoms with public order and economic stability.
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