Why the Kenya Shilling is Suddenly Weakening Against the Dollar

The Kenyan shilling weakened slightly on Thursday, after several days of steady gains, with traders attributing the depreciation to rising demand for the dollar from manufacturers and oil marketing companies.

The shilling traded at 129.65/129.85, compared to Wednesday’s closing rate of 129.00/130.00. “Demand is still surpassing supply. That’s partly attributed to the end-of-month demand that we normally see,” Reuters quoted a trader at one commercial bank saying.

The shilling had opened the week on a strong footing. On Tuesday, 26^th November, the Kenya shilling gained against the US dollar, as dollars inflows from remittances matched the rising importer demand. The shilling traded at 129.00/130.00, according data from Reuters, compared to the Central Bank of Kenya’s (CBK) weekend closing rates of 129.57 on 22^nd November.

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The shilling increased by 0.57 cents against the dollar, despite the dollar’s surge since President-elect Donald Trump won the US elections earlier this month. However, data from the CBK shows that the shilling closed the day Monday, November 25, trading at 129.57.

Diaspora remittances helped buoy the shilling after hitting an all-time high in October: CBK revealed that remittances for that month totalled $437.2 million (about Ksh56.3 billion), marking an $18.7 million (Ksh 2.4 billion) increase from September.

Further, the CBK, in its weekly bulletin published on Friday, November 15, announced that the cumulative inflows for the 12 months to October 2024 increased by 15.3% to Ksh623 billion ($4.8 billion) compared to Ksh532 billion ($4.1 billion) in the same period last year.

According to CBK, the United States was the largest source of diaspora remittances to Kenya, accounting for 53.7% of the contributions channelled into the country in October 2024. The regulator, in its announcement, revealed that the remittance inflows boosted the country’s current account and stabilised the foreign exchange market.

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