Kenya Faces Fertiliser Shock Over Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger fertiliser shortages, higher prices, and wider economic pressure for import-dependent countries such as Kenya, especially as the planting season begins.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategic shipping routes. It connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and carries large volumes of oil, gas, and fertilisers.

According to global trade data, the waterway handles about 20 per cent of global energy supplies, making it vital to international markets.

Because of the conflict, shipping activity has dropped sharply, with vessel movements falling from about 100 ships per day before the escalation to just one or two tankers daily by mid-March 2026 due to security concerns.

UNCTAD said the route is critical for the fertiliser trade.

“About one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, roughly 16 million tonnes, passes through the strait,” the agency stated, warning that any prolonged disruption could hit vulnerable countries the hardest.

Kenya’s fertiliser imports

The organisation noted that Kenya is exposed to risks because a significant share of its fertiliser imports moves through the Gulf route. About 26 per cent of Kenya’s fertiliser imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that continued instability could affect supply and push prices higher during the planting period.

UNCTAD also highlighted other countries with even greater exposure. Sudan routes 54 per cent of its fertiliser imports through the strait, while Sri Lanka depends on it for 36 per cent. The agency warned that countries with heavy reliance on maritime imports face higher risks if shipping lanes remain unstable.

The Strait of Hormuz is also central to global energy flows. It is one of the main corridors for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, and disruptions there affect not only fuel prices but also industries that rely on gas, including fertiliser production. Many nitrogen-based fertilisers are produced using natural gas as a key input, meaning energy shocks can quickly affect agricultural markets.

The current conflict in the region has increased security risks for commercial vessels. Reports indicate that several shipping companies have reduced transits or rerouted ships to avoid potential threats, leading to delays and higher freight and insurance costs. These added costs often translate into higher prices for goods, including fertilisers.

UNCTAD warned that instability in such a key trade route could tighten global supply chains and push up costs for developing economies.

For countries like Kenya, where agriculture plays a major role in food security and employment, higher fertiliser prices could reduce farm productivity and affect crop yields.

As tensions continue, global markets are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, since prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have lasting effects on energy markets, trade flows, food production, and inflation worldwide.