Are these signs of Raila losing petition?

There are strong signs that NASA will certainly lose the presidential petition against the re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta.  Already, security has been deployed in some NASA strongholds, including Kibera, Mathare and Kisumu.

In anticipation of sporadic violence after the ruling, security has been heightened with major deployments and anti-riot and crowd control drills. Raila Odinga himself appears to have withered down, saying a loss will not be the end of life.

“A soldier lives to fight another battle,” he said yesterday, appealing to his supporters to be calm after the ruling, “therefore, today the world is not coming to an end.”

Meanwhile, prepares for the swearing in of the President-elect at Kasarani Stadium started in earnest a few days ago and invitation letters for various dignitaries, including serving and former heads of state and presidents, have already been sent out, according to people familiar with the matter.

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The Supreme Court is expected to making its ruling on the high profile case from 11am today in a case that’s closely being followed both locally and across Africa in a replay of 2013 when the highest court in the land dismissed Raila’s petition. A number of legal observers are pointing to a win for IEBC and Uhuru Kenyatta, arguing that the NASA case did not have strong evidence of massive vote-rigging.

NASA presidential candidate refused to concede, citing electoral fraud, after the IEBC declared Uhuru Kenyatta as the winner of the election after garnering 8.2 million votes against Raila’s 6.7 million votes, a margin of nearly 1.5 million votes.

While there were such cases, legal experts say they may not be large enough to put the integrity of the election into question.

The NASA legal team put up a strong case for invalidating Uhuru’s win, arguing that the Kenya Integrated Election Management system (KIEMS) had been compromised with a formula that maintained constant margin between the two front-runners. It also pointed to inconsistencies in the number of votes announced at polling stations with those captured by the IEBC.

If indeed the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice David Magara, rule against NASA, it will be the end of not only the 2017 election but will also seal the political fate of Raila Odinga, who had promised to retire after this year’s election.

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The Supreme Court must deliver its ruling within 14 days after receiving the petition challenging Uhuru’s win, according to the law. It is under pressure to deliver a thoroughly persuasive ruling. Each justice has been urged to read his or her own judgment, but it is not known if they will, or if only the majority opinion will be read aloud.

The judges are CJ David Maraga, deputy CJ Philomena Mwilu, Mohamed Ibrahim, Smokin Wanjala, Njoki Ndungu, Isaac Lenaola and Jackton Ojwang.

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