NSE (Nairobi Securities Exchange) Activity is on an upswing with the market capitalization, at the end of this Tuesday’s trading session, closing at KSh 3,044.07 Billion.
Investment analysts and insiders attribute increase in paper wealth at the NSE to strong earnings and fat dividends from Blue-Chip firms, strong investor appetite for equities as returns from Government paper dwindles, a stable Kenya Shilling exchange rate, lower inflation expectations and hot money from fly-by-night foreign investors.
Foreign Investors Are Hedging Against Unfavourable Returns Back Home
Figures from the NSE Data Services portal shows Foreign investor participation is looking good and averaging 55% of NSE daily turnover, the highest in four years.
Unfavourable yields on US Treasury Securities have pushed foreign investors to seek for better returns in frontier markets like Kenya, thus injecting liquidity into the Nairobi bourse.
Local institutional investor, led by banks, are also stacking up cash in equities as the next best alternative investment option as local treasury securities continue to offer relatively lower yields.
Others attribute the renewed investor activity at the NSE to the influx of retail investors, who now trade from their phones, adding to the market’s momentum. With new innovations hitting the market, Safaricom is the latest entry and said to be piloting Ziidi trader, a new mobile App that will allow users to buy and sell shares at the bourse from the comfort of their mobile cash wallets. The platform has a wide banquet that includes daily price lists and alerts as well as portfolio tracking capabilities. This integration could break down barriers to stock market trading and increase the level of participation by retail investors at the bourse.
Analysts maintain that if the current momentum holds, the NSE could record its best performance yet, since 2019. But if the US Treasury yields rebound, foreign investors could vanish overnight, leading to huge capital outflows from the NSE.
Global economic uncertainties, high inflation and upcoming decisions by the US Federal Reserve, could also trigger renewed volatility at the NSE. Market watchers also point at other risks that persist at the Nairobi bourse such as low liquidity , with the daily turnover at around KSh 450 million. While the Central Bank of Kenya(CBK) has maintained tough fiscal discipline to curb the government’s appetite for local borrowings, any policy shift that triggers attraction back to government debt instruments, would wipe out cash from the stock market, potentially affecting its performance.
Meanwhile, heavy lifters at the Nairobi bourse are Safaricom, Equity Group, EABL, KCB and Cooperative Bank of Kenya, have been on a rally, boosted by strong corporate earnings and fat dividend payouts to shareholders. Investors are advised to keep an eye on blue chips such as Safaricom, Equity, KCB which are well positioned for potential growth given their strong financial performance and market dominance.
Safaricom Group Plc, with huge foreign investor interest and which has announced strong half year earnings, has been the biggest mover at the NSE, contributing nearly to half of total market recovery as its stock price gathers momentum.
Banking stock prices are touching all-time highs, benefiting from good earnings and easing liquidity pressure as their loan performance improves.
Meanwhile, institutional investors including banks, pension funds and insurance firms, who stashed their excess cash in high-yielding government paper, are slowly shifting their portfolios to the stock market.
Stock prices at the NSE have continued to record strong gains, with investors enjoying notable capital appreciation across their portfolios. The sustained rally has pushed the NSE’s overall market capitalization, reflecting renewed investor confidence, analysts say.
As a close of this Tuesday, some 11 counters were trading at or above their year highs, including Absa, Car&General, Coop Bank, DTB, EABL, Equity, I&M, KCB, KenGen, Limuru Tea and Safaricom.
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