A new TIFA survey shows Kenyans are divided over Raila Odinga’s next political move, though many expect him to back President William Ruto in 2027.
The poll, released on September 23, found that 32 per cent of respondents believe the ODM leader will support Ruto’s re-election. Another 23 per cent think Raila will return to the opposition and contest the presidency, while 14 per cent see him backing a different opposition candidate.
Fourteen per cent also said they expect him to retire from politics altogether.
The findings reflect the uncertainty created after Raila entered into a power-sharing deal with President Ruto on March 7, 2025, through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding.
The agreement, which ushered ODM into the Kenya Kwanza administration, was billed as a move to stabilise the country after months of street protests.
Since then, speculation has grown over whether Raila will maintain his cooperation with Ruto or step back into his familiar role as opposition leader. The poll suggests the public remains split, with some voters encouraged by the unity arrangement while others remain sceptical.
House divided
On the ground, ODM leaders and supporters have openly hinted that Raila’s alliance with Ruto could stretch into the 2027 elections.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, speaking in Migori in August, said Raila had instructed them to support Ruto.
“Our support for President Ruto is not ending tomorrow. It is a support that is going to the maximum possible end, and that maximum possible end is 2032,” he declared.
ODM deputy party leader and Kisii Governor Simba Arati made similar remarks during Wycliffe Oparanya’s homecoming in Kakamega, saying ODM ministers should perform so well in government that Ruto is impressed.
“If anyone in UDA tries to undermine his government, as ODM Deputy Party Leader, I will invite him to discuss how we can support him in 2027,” Arati said.
In Siaya, Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi and Uriri MP Mark Nyamita praised Ruto’s goodwill to the Nyanza region and said they would support his re-election.
Not everyone in ODM agrees. Party secretary-general Edwin Sifuna has warned that he will not back the party if it decides to formally support Ruto in 2027.
Raila himself has also been cautious, telling MPs in July that the cooperation deal is meant to last only until 2027.
“We did not say that we are going to work with UDA beyond 2027,” he said.
