Kenya’s multibillion-shilling textile and apparel industry could face a major test at the end of this month if duty-free access to the U.S. market expires without a backup plan.
The government is now banking on fast-tracked negotiations for a new trade agreement with Washington to keep exports flowing.
In a recent interview, Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui noted that Nairobi aims to conclude a deal before the end of the year, describing it as crucial for protecting jobs and securing one of the country’s most important markets.
“It depends also on them (the Americans), but our view is that before the end of the year, we should be able to have something on the table,” Kinyanjui said.
Kenya exported goods worth about $737 million (Ksh 96.5 billion) to the United States last year, roughly 10 per cent of its total exports. Much of this is clothing destined for American retailers like Walmart and Target.
According to Kinyanjui, more than 300,000 direct and indirect jobs are tied to the duty-free benefits of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
“If there’s no clear transition, there would be disruption,” the minister warned, pointing to the risk of factory closures and job losses if AGOA ends suddenly. He said Kenya’s wish is to replicate the program’s terms in any new bilateral deal.
The urgency has been heightened by President Donald Trump’s April tariff policy, which imposed a 10 per cent duty on Kenyan goods.
While still lower than tariffs faced by countries such as Vietnam and South Africa, the new costs add pressure to secure a stable long-term arrangement.
“We believe we still can be competitive,” Kinyanjui said. “You may see those big companies actually wanting to come to Kenya.”
Talks between Kenya and the U.S. have a long backstory. They began in 2020 during Trump’s first term and were later reframed by the Biden administration as a trade and investment partnership. But negotiations were left incomplete when Trump returned to the White House in January.
Despite being one of Washington’s closest allies in Africa a status underlined by its 2024 designation as a “major non-NATO ally”, Kenya has drawn criticism from U.S. officials for its growing trade with China.
President William Ruto has defended the approach, insisting the country must expand exports to Asia to close a trade deficit that heavily favours Beijing.
Last month, Kinyanjui met U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington, where the two sides agreed to launch formal negotiations for a reciprocal trade deal. No follow-up rounds have yet been scheduled.
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