CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) is expected to make further cuts to the benchmark lending rate when the Monetary Policy Committee(MPC) is top policy organ meets tomorrow 10th February 2026. At its December 2025 meeting the CBK lowered the Central Bank Rate(CBR), which provides a signal now the rate at which commercial banks peg their lending rate to 9% from 9.25%.
The CBK has been on a rate cutting mode with nine consecutive drops since February 2024. Analysts hold the view that with stable inflation outlook and robust economic growth, it is likely that CBK might continue easing its monetary policy stance.
“Domestic conditions continue to support an accommodative monetary policy stance, with inflation comfortably within the CBK’s target band, a stable exchange rate, subdued private sector growth and soft labour market conditions that pose no inflation risk,” said Dedan Maina, a financial analyst at Ketu Capital.
CBK to do further cuts or hold the CBR
These conditions provide the Monetary Policy Committee with scope to ease further if deemed necessary. However, the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to hold rates reinforces the use of caution. Historically, CBK has been reluctant to ease policy materially ahead of the Fed in order to preserve interest rates differentials, support capital flows and maintain exchange rate stability.
In this context, the most likely policy outcome is either a hold or a modest 25 basis points cut with any decision likely to be accompanied by dovish forward guidance signalling readiness to ease further should global and domestic conditions permit,” said Maina.
At its December meeting, the CBK noted that performance of the Kenyan economy remained resilient in the first half of 2025, with real GDP growth averaging 4.9 percent, supported by a rebound in activity in the industrial sector, stable growth of the agriculture sector, and resilience of the service sectors.
Leading indicators of economic activity point to improved performance in the third quarter of 2025.
CBK projects Kenya’s economic growth rate to pick up to 5.2% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, supported by continued resilience of key service sectors and agriculture, and the continued recovery of the industry sector.
This outlook, is however, subject to risks, including adverse weather conditions, elevated trade policy uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions.
While CBK introduced KESONIA benchmark rate so as to improve monetary policy transmission and align with international best practice, major banks are still reluctant to switch to KESONIA as an alternative reference rate. Their concerns range from the fact that it will stifle credit growth, particularly to small businesses and low-income households.
The CBK notes that the revised banking sector Risk-Based Credit Pricing Model (RBCPM), which will be fully operational by March 2026, will improve the transmission of monetary policy decisions to commercial banks’ lending interest rates, and enhance transparency in the pricing of loans by banks.
ALSO READ: Equity Bank Adjusts Loan Prices Using New Model
Leave a comment