World Bank Report Flags Risks in Africa’s Mega-Irrigation Projects

A new report by the World Bank and partners, titled Nourish and Flourish: Water Solutions to Feed 10 Billion People on a Livable Planet, has warned that Africa’s push for large-scale irrigation to tackle food shortages could backfire if projects fail to deliver quickly.

The study finds that current food systems can sustainably feed only about 3.4 billion people, far below the nearly 10 billion expected globally by 2050.

“Irrigation expansion is essential to meet future food demand,” the report stated, emphasising that rain-fed farming alone cannot keep up with climate change and population growth.

Across East Africa, governments are investing heavily in dams, canals, and large-scale farms to secure food for growing populations. Kenya’s Galana-Kulalu Food Security Project is a flagship example, aiming to turn arid land into a major food-producing area and reduce reliance on imports.

Years after its launch, the project has faced delays, rising costs, and questions about whether it can deliver affordable food at scale. Like other large irrigation schemes, it requires continuous spending for maintenance, energy, and technical support. The report warns that governments may still be left servicing large loans even if harvests fall short.

Similar initiatives are underway in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and other African states, many funded through external borrowing. With debt already rising, analysts warn that heavy irrigation spending could strain public finances and crowd out other essential services.

Despite these investments, countries continue to import staple foods. Droughts force governments to buy grain on global markets at high prices, draining foreign currency reserves while still repaying loans for domestic projects.

Analysts describe this as a “double burden”: paying for irrigation while still financing emergency imports when projects underperform, or rains fail.

The report highlights irrigation’s economic potential. Expanding irrigated agriculture could create around 245 million jobs globally, including 218 million in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Each newly irrigated hectare could generate roughly four jobs, providing a tool to fight youth unemployment. But these benefits depend on successful implementation; stalled projects or systems favouring large commercial farms may leave smallholders behind.

Environmental concerns are also significant. Poorly managed irrigation can deplete rivers and groundwater, threatening long-term water supply for both farming and drinking. In water-stressed regions, this may heighten competition between farmers, pastoralists, and urban populations, increasing the risk of conflict.

Climate change has left few alternatives. Rainfall is increasingly erratic, and traditional farming seasons are no longer reliable. Without irrigation, millions of farmers remain exposed to severe losses.

The report also recommends exploring smaller, decentralised solutions, including solar-powered pumps, drip irrigation, and rainwater harvesting, which can provide faster benefits with lower financial risk.

For Kenya and many African states, irrigation could either unlock food security and rural prosperity or deepen fiscal strain while failing to stop hunger. As climate change intensifies and populations surge, the window to get this balance right is rapidly closing.