Will the Opposition Overcome the Unity Jinx in 2027?

The clock is fast ticking towards the 2027 elections and the general consensus in the opposition camp, so far, is a united front to oust President William Ruto. The big question, however, is: Will this unity of purpose hold with the ghost of disunity ever lurking round?

Kenya’s opposition has been here before. In 1992, when the country returned to multiparty politics, three formidable politicians — Kenneth Matiba, Mwai Kibaki and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga — went into the presidential election separately instead of rallying behind one candidate. Daniel arap Moi won with 36.35% of the vote, against Matiba’s 26%, Kibaki’s 19.45% and Jaramogi’s 17.48%. The opposition had the numbers, but not the unity to turn those numbers into victory.

Twenty-five years later, the lesson seemed to have been learnt. The National Super Alliance brought together Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, among others, and eventually settled on Raila as its presidential candidate, with Kalonzo as his running mate. But even that alliance did not survive the competing interests and mistrust that often accompany political coalitions. The handshake that followed the disputed 2017 election eventually exposed just how fragile the arrangement had been.

Now the opposition faces the same old question ahead of 2027: can it finally break the jinx and rally behind one candidate? The logic is compelling but this may be the most difficult political bargain yet.  The opposition is not short of presidential hopefuls. If previous elections are anything to go by, the daunting task would be a mechanism that can persuade each of them that somebody else deserves the ticket more than they do.

Kalonzo Musyoka’s Longest-Running Claim

Kalonzo Musyoka probably has the longest-running claim. He has contested the presidency, served as Vice-President and repeatedly played the number-two role in opposition coalitions. After years of supporting many candidates, he will be under personal and supporters’ pressure to go for the big seat.

Recent polling gives the man from Seikuru a strong claim. A July Infotrak poll put him at 13% nationally, ahead of most opposition figures, while a later poll among opposition supporters gave him an even stronger showing. If the trend continues, this is likely to embolden his claim to the big seat.

Gachagua and his raw ambition

Then there is Rigathi Gachagua, whose presence makes the arithmetic considerably more complicated. Having been President Ruto’s Deputy and a heartbeat away from ultimate power, Gachagua’s raw ambition is insatiable.

After what befell him, leading to his impeachment, Gachagua has been explicit in his revenge mission against his former boss. And what a better way than trouncing him at the ballot, if his wish prevails? His repeated “mimi ndio dawa ya Ruto” ( I’m Ruto’s antidote) is reveals his self-rating against his colleagues.

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His strongest asset is also his biggest political question: Mt Kenya. If he can mobilise a substantial portion of the Kikuyu vote against Ruto, he becomes an important coalition player. But would the rest of the opposition be comfortable placing its presidential ticket in the hands of Ruto’s former deputy? And would the country want another election dominated by the politics of a Kikuyu-Kalenjin contest after the experience of 2022?

Gachagua also carries a legal baggage. The High Court upheld his impeachment, although he has appealed the decision and maintains that he remains eligible to contest. The issue remains unsettled.

Edwin Sifuna Generational Challenge

Edwin Sifuna presents perhaps the most intriguing generational challenge. His appeal lies less in an established presidential machine than in the politics that emerged after the Gen Z-led protests of 2024. He represents a younger, more combative political generation and has sought to take the Linda Mwananchi message beyond Nairobi. His numbers in recent opinion polls suggest that he cannot simply be dismissed as a youthful aspirant with limited national appeal.

Currently, Sifuna is the new kid on Kenya’s political block. His recent political forays across the country after a bitter fallout with ODM stalwarts have earned him a sizeable and euphoric following. What began as opposition to the broad-based government arrangement has catapulted him to higher heights that will take considerable efforts to bring down in the quest for opposition flag bearer

But presidential politics demands more than enthusiasm. It demands money, organisation, agents, mobilisation and the ability to turn a political mood into votes in every part of the country. Sifuna’s challenge is to demonstrate that the energy around him can survive the transition from protest politics to a presidential campaign.

Fred Matiang’i: Slayer of corruption?

Fred Matiang’i brings a different proposition. He is not burdened by the long history of unsuccessful presidential bids and has the advantage of having run important parts of government. His no-nonsense stance portrays him as man with potential to crash one of the country’s greatest nightmare, corruption.  The no-nonsense stance and hands on penchant on issues has given him the Magufuli of Kenya image.

His campaign has been seeking to build a national political network and penetrate areas beyond his traditional Kisii constituency. His supporters see him as an experienced administrator who could appeal to voters looking for an alternative to both Ruto and the old opposition establishment.

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Matiang’i enjoys the support of former President Uhuru Kenyatta and the subsequent financial clout that is likely to be associated with this support. This will likely embolden him as man of the moment. But riding on the Uhuru wave is also likely to be his undoing. Critics are likely to view him as a stooge.

His other challenge is turning administrative experience into political loyalty. Can a candidate without a long-established nationwide political machine persuade other principals to hand him the opposition crown?

The Comeback of Martha Karua

Martha Karua brings yet another proposition. She has the reform credentials, national visibility and a political reputation that could make her acceptable to people looking for a compromise candidate. She has also made it clear that she wants the presidential ticket rather than another invitation to play running mate. That makes her an important part of the equation, which would be very difficult to dislodge in the 2027 decisive moments.

In the last general elections, she missed by a whisker the joint ticket with Raila Odinga and reeling fresh from the episode, she is highly likely to make a comeback again but this time round, for the highest seat. For the proponents of gender equality, this could turn out into a Martha Karua moment.

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Otuma Ongalo is a veteran Kenyan journalist and commentator. Email: [email protected]