Renown Nairobi businessman, Anthony Odiero, who also doubles as a continental power broker in Africa, was on Tuesday stopped at the ‘Robert Gabriel Mugabe’ International Airport in Harare as he tried to access Zimbabwe where he was to meet a high-profile personality from the central area of the continent, forcing him to reschedule the meeting to a different jurisdiction.
No official reason was given for this move, even as Odiero flew on to Zanzibar for his meeting before leaving for for Dubai this coming weekend for more of the cross-continental dealings he does.
From what we could establish, Odiero’s blockage in Harare may have had something to do with the recent coup in Madagascar, where President Andry Rajoelina was ousted in a military-backed putsch led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina, who rode the wave of mass student protests in Madagascar.
Anthony Odiero is a familiar dashing figure in the “insider” circles of the power classes in Antananarivo, and had in fact hosted two former presidents of the island in Nairobi just before the coup in Madagascar (including president Hery Rajaonarimam); and it is perhaps the main cause of Odier’s blockage of access to Harare, which is currently being resolved.
In some quarters, the Nairobi businessman is seen as having provided that back channel access that he has a specialty for, even with almost all local politicians in Kenya of national level, where his honed negotiation-and-delivery skills have him as what one could call a middleman of power politics. In Madagascar, what began in late September as Madagascar’s student demonstrations over crippling electricity outages and water shortages quickly evolved into broader demands for political reform.
It became a clarion call to dismantle a system widely seen as corrupt and unaccountable, and for President Andry Rajoelina to resign. As demonstrations swelled across the country, the embattled president sought to restore order through curfews, the dismissal of his energy minister, and ultimately the dissolution of his government.
Eventually, the elite CAPSAT unit – the same corps that had propelled Rajo to power that toppledhim. It is that umbra where civilian money power and military might meet circles that Odiero has been operating in Madagascar and elsewhere – as a continental conduit of that interesting intersection of the system (and the soldiers).
Of course once CAPSAT soldiers joined protesters,
Mere hours later, CAPSAT announced it had seized power, dissolved most state institutions, and assumed absolute control of the government. Yet while Rajoelina’s domestic legitimacy faced severe challenges, he continued to enjoy regional recognition, most notably as the current chair of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Even as Malagasy citizens mobilised to demand accountability, institutions like the SADC repeatedly confer legitimacy to presidents with dubious democratic credentials, despite their ostensible non-commitment to democratic governance and constitutional order.
In turn, this limits their ability to deter antidemocratic behaviour, including coups, even if Rwanda’s Kagame recently implied there are ‘good coups’ when the executive overreach, and the erosion of institutional checks and balances, gets out of hand.
Questions over Rajoelina’s democratic legitimacy were far from new. In February 2009, then the mayor of Antananarivo, he attempted to declare himself president in the midst of mass demonstrations against the Marc Ravalomanana regime. He didn’t succeed but a subsequent military coup installed him as the interim leader.
That was widely condemned as an unconstitutional takeover. Madagascar was suspended from both the African Union and the SADC. His unwillingness to step down contributed to a stalled transition process that took nearly five years.
Rajoelina prevailed in the 2018 vote. While that election was widely regarded as legitimate, despite some irregularities, the 2023 electoral cycle was not. There were accusations of a pre-determined process, protests, a legal challenge to Rajoelina’s eligibility, limitations on opposition rallies and calls to delay until a more credible process could be organised.
Rajoelina prevailed in a vote boycotted by the opposition and. accompanied by historically low turnout, and then had to face the music of mass protests.
In an especially revealing act, National Assembly president Christine Razanamahasoa – a prominent member of Rajoelina’s own party – made a public request for the SADC to push for a delay in the election and for pressure on Rajoelina to allow a freer democratic process.
Such calls went unheeded. Rajoelina prevailed in a vote boycotted by the opposition and. accompanied by historically low turnout, and then had to face the music of mass protests – before the tune became deafening and Rajoelina had to be drummed out of town by the military.
Rajoelina’s case isn’t an exception. It illustrates a tendency in which leaders with dubious domestic credentials are welcomed internationally by supposedly democracy-promoting organisations like SADC. Ironically in that list also has Zimbabwe’s Emmerson Mnangagwa, who rose to Zimbabwe’s presidency following the 2017 coup against Robert Mugabe, but is now head of a long legitimised regime, and who was head of SADC.
Unlike Rajoelina, the SADC did not require Mnangagwa to take a sabbatical and he has retained power. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa has selected Mnangagwa as its next chair, even as Odiero hopes to traverse through the airspace of Zimbabwe soon, and be told the “habari” in Harare is good as airport officials wave him in.
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