Kenya’s ecommerce space is expanding at a pace that has caught the attention of industry observers. Available data shows that revenues in Kenya’s e-commerce market reached US$762m in 2024, with projections showing an annual growth rate of 15-20%.
What makes this growth particularly remarkable is that Kenya’s ecommerce Market is expected to reach 40 million users by 2026, fuelled by over 40 million internet users and the widespread adoption of mobile money platforms.
Kenya’s current ecommerce market size and revenue figures
Kenya’s ecommerce market reached KSh 299.45 billion in 2024, with projections showing continued momentum into 2025. By the end of 2025, analysts forecasted the market to hit KSh 338.34 billion.
Monthly revenues in January 2026 alone stood at KSh 11,018.75 million, an indication of consistent transaction volumes.
The assessment of current buyer behaviour reveals that the number of users reached 12.26 million in 2024.
Kenya now holds the position as the 3rd largest e-commerce market in Africa, trailing only South Africa and Nigeria. This ranking reflects the substantial infrastructure investments and mobile payment adoption that distinguish Kenya from other regional markets.
Year-over-year growth rates compared to predictions
Growth metrics tell a story of acceleration beyond initial forecasts. The market achieved a CAGR of 10.9% during 2020-2024, outpacing many predictions made at the start of the decade. Moreover, analysts forecast the upward trajectory will continue at a CAGR of 10.1% from 2025 to 2029.
Annual growth rates show even more robust performance. The market expanded by 12.86% on an annual basis in 2024, surpassing conservative estimates from previous years. Given that the digital economy is projected to contribute KSh 662 billion to GDP by 2028, these growth rates align with broader economic digitization trends.
By 2029, the market is projected to reach approximately KSh 496.49 billion, representing a near doubling from 2024 values. The forecast period of 2024-2028 shows a CAGR of 9.97%, indicating sustained expansion rather than temporary spikes.
User penetration statistics
User penetration rates have exceeded regional averages, with Kenya demonstrating high adoption levels. With over 66.1 million mobile network connections, the infrastructure supports a growing digital consumer base.
Internet usage continues expanding annually, creating millions of new digital consumers who accelerate adoption across both urban and rural areas.
The widespread integration of mobile money platforms has removed traditional banking barriers, enabling participation from demographics previously excluded from digital commerce.
Factors Driving Growth of Ecommerce in Kenya
Several interconnected forces have converged to accelerate ecommerce in Kenya beyond initial projections. Understanding these drivers reveals why the market continues outpacing forecasts.
Mobile money integration with M-Pesa
M-Pesa fundamentally altered payment friction in online commerce. The platform enables direct API integration through Daraja, allowing instant payment verification and automatic order confirmation.
This cashless approach addresses security concerns while streamlining transactions. Businesses can now automate the entire payment flow, from STK push requests to call-back confirmations, eliminating manual reconciliation.
Rising smartphone and internet accessibility
Smartphone penetration reached 83.5% by June 2025, creating an addressable market of 42.3 million connected devices with an 80.8% penetration rate. Network infrastructure expanded in parallel, with 4G coverage hitting 97.3% of the population and 5G reaching 30%.
Mobile data subscriptions grew to 58.5 million, marking a 27.3% annual increase. This connectivity surge transformed shopping behaviour, with 83.5% of internet access now occurring via smartphones.
Rural Kenya’s unexpected 60% market share
Rural areas now drive 60% of all Jumia orders, representing a historic behavioural shift. The platform established over 300 pickup stations across all 47 counties, reducing delivery times to 2-4 days on average.
The JForce agent network expanded to 26,000+ agents nationwide, providing assisted ordering and digital literacy support for first-time shoppers.
Expansion of ecommerce platforms in Kenya
Kenya’s SMEs now represent 60% of all sellers on major platforms, gaining national reach previously impossible through traditional retail channels. This democratization allows small businesses to access customers hundreds of kilometres away without physical expansion.
Improved logistics and delivery networks
Same-day delivery capabilities drive measurable results. Kenya’s Startups offering express shipping grow 60% faster, while customers show 31% higher purchase completion rates when seeing confirmed delivery dates and 41% willingness to pay premium fees. DHL’s 24/7 operations and emerging micro-fulfilment centers enable faster, cost-effective deliveries.
How Kenya’s Businesses Are Capitalizing on This Growth
Entrepreneurs across Kenya have seized the market expansion by building businesses on platforms requiring minimal upfront investment. The shift from traditional retail to digital commerce has opened doors for sellers who previously lacked access to national markets.
SMEs dominating 60% of online seller base
Small businesses now comprise 60% of all sellers on major platforms. This dominance reflects how ecommerce platforms in Kenya have democratized market access, allowing vendors to reach customers across all 47 counties without physical stores. SMEs contribute 35% of GDP and employ over 80% of the workforce, making their digital adoption critical to economic growth.
Social commerce through WhatsApp and Instagram
Mobile apps account for 44.8% of order placements, while WhatsApp alone drives 20.2% of transactions.
This preference for conversational commerce has spawned specialized platforms. SUKHIBA raised KSh 200.93 million to scale its WhatsApp-based B2B solution, which integrates inventory ordering, payments, and trade credit directly within chat interfaces.
Flowchart clients report 40% sales increases within months, with one Nairobi business building 1,500 customers in seven months through WhatsApp alone.
TikTok Shop has emerged as another force, enabling seamless in-app purchases. Among Gen Z shoppers, 68% discover products via social platforms, and 58% complete purchases without leaving the app. Instagram remains dominant, with 91% of Gen Z users active on the platform.
Building an ecommerce website in Kenya costs between KSh50,000 and KSh 1,500,000, covering design, development, and maintenance. This range accommodates various business scales, from micro-sellers to established retailers.
What This Rapid Growth Means for Kenya’s Future
The momentum points toward substantial expansion across multiple dimensions. Market analysts project the value will climb from KSh 298.15 billion in 2023 to KSh 492.60 billion by 2028, while alternative forecasts place it at KSh 500 billion by 2027. This represents a CAGR of 9.97% during 2024-2028, with annual average growth of 16.4% by 2025.
Presently, 96% of organizations have initiated their AI journey. Specifically, 55% deploy AI in customer service, 51% in software development, 37% in research and innovation, and 36% in marketing optimization. The Kenya National AI Strategy 2025-2030 supports this adoption.
Cross-border trade opportunities across Africa
Kenya aligns its National E-Commerce Strategy with the AfCFTA protocol. Cross-border digital trade with EAC countries accounts for only 2% of total services trade, revealing untapped potential as regional harmonization progresses.
Kenya’s National E-Commerce Strategy was launched in December 2023, with a draft E-Commerce Policy developed in 2025. The policy promotes digital infrastructure development, supports MSMEs, and integrates emerging technologies like AI and blockchain.
Kenya’s ecommerce market has delivered growth numbers that exceeded most projections, driven by mobile money integration, rural adoption, and accessible platforms. The numbers tell a clear story: this market will continue expanding through 2028 and beyond. For businesses, perhaps this is the perfect time to establish a digital presence before the market matures.
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