Support for the broad-based government has doubled over the past six months, rising from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent in November, according to a new survey by TIFA, pointing to a significant shift in public attitudes toward the political arrangement.
The survey tracked opinion on the coalition between President William Ruto and associates of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, an alliance that has remained controversial since its formation. It found that opposition to the arrangement declined from 64 per cent in August to 48 per cent in November—the lowest level recorded across the three surveys conducted by TIFA.
TIFA noted that the August figure marked the peak of resistance to the arrangement, likely influenced by the violent suppression of protests in June and July, events that were still fresh in the public mind at the time.
The broad-based government took shape last year when President Ruto launched an Africa-wide campaign backing Raila Odinga’s unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship. The two leaders later announced a political partnership that effectively neutralised the Orange Democratic Movement’s role as the official parliamentary Opposition.
Following Odinga’s defeat in the AU race in February, President Ruto appointed several senior ODM elected leaders to Cabinet positions. Other Odinga allies were subsequently named to roles including permanent secretary, ambassador, and members of parastatal boards. The partnership was further consolidated through multiple presidential visits to Odinga’s Nyanza stronghold to commission development projects and attend official functions.
The TIFA survey was conducted just weeks before Odinga’s death on October 15 while he was receiving medical treatment in India. Even before his passing, there had been growing unease among core ODM supporters about the party’s political direction ahead of the next general election, now less than two years away.
Odinga’s death appears to have intensified internal disputes within ODM and the wider Odinga family, particularly over succession and the 2027 presidential contest.
According to TIFA Research, respondents’ views on the broad-based government were analysed alongside other survey questions to assess the depth of division on the issue. The findings suggest that as the political arrangement has matured and the initial shock has faded, more Kenyans have either accepted or warmed to the concept, even as opposition remains substantial at nearly half of the population.
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