Kenya has been overtaken by Morocco as Africa’s top avocado exporter according to preliminary data from the Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO) Tropical Fruits Market Review.
Kenya, previously Africa’s largest avocado exporter, moved to second place after recording a 19% year on year decline in exports to an estimated 105,164 tons.
The FAO attributed the reduction mainly to logistics constraints linked to disruptions in the Red Sea, which is a key shipping route to Europe, Kenya’s main export destination.
Morocco, Kenya, and South Africa together accounted for more than 75% of Africa’s total avocado exports.
According to the report, “Export potential was constrained by a near doubling of transit times to Europe due to the Red Sea crisis and the resulting surge in shipping costs.”
Kenya has to reroute to Cape of Good Hope to reach European markets
In 2025, shipping companies gave the Suez Canal a wide berth after security risks mounted, pushing up transit times and leading to a spike in freight costs.
South Africa, ranked third among African exporters, also faced similar challenges. The country’s avocado exports declined by 6% in 2025 to 80,423 tons, according to FAO estimates, again largely due to disruptions along Red Sea shipping routes.
Bottlenecks in Red Sea Shipping lines, has been driven by Houthi Attacks, forcing shipping routes to by-pass the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times from 18-20 days to 40-45 days.
Increased freight costs and longer transit times affect competitiveness of Kenyan Avocados in European markets.
According to Paul Kyalo, CEO of Konza tropical, the seasonal weather patterns has created market opportunities but logical problems is holding her back.
Experts maintain that Kenya’s superior avocado fruit has many competitive edges. With the removal of tariff barriers to all imports from Africa by China beginning this May, Kenya has an opportunity to increase its avocado exports to the Chinese market.
In January 2026, Kenya and China reached a preliminary early harvest trade agreement granting 98.2 per cent of Kenyan goods duty-free access to the Chinese market. The agreement was structured to increase agricultural exports and address Kenya’s trade deficit with China.
Higher shipping costs further eroded Kenya’s competitive advantage, despite its historically low average export unit values of around US$1,300 per tonne, roughly 50 percent lower than Peru and well below Morocco’s US$2,747 per tonne.
Kenya’s heavy reliance on the EU market, which accounts for more than half of its exports, compounded the impact of these disruptions.
Globally, avocado exports expanded 13% in 2025, to around 3.3 million tonnes, a sharp acceleration from the 2% growth in 2024. Mexico remains the world’s leading supplier, shipping an estimated 1.2 million tonnes, although exports there contracted 3% as domestic demand absorbed more of the country’s harvest.
The World avocado market is expected to continue to grow, with projections of a US$20 billion market by 2030.
Emerging producers such as Tanzania and South Africa are expanding production and could challenge the top 10 in the future. Consumer trends such as the rise of plant-based diets will continue to push up demand, particularly in North America and Europe.
In a major milestone that will boost export trade between the two countries, Kenya has secured market for fresh avocado market in India.
This development comes after the Indian government approved the export of the fresh produce beginning this September when the first shipment are expected to commence in a move that farmers welcomed with batted breath.
Preliminary figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Tropical Fruits Market Review show that African avocado exports rose 16.7 % in 2025 to about 430,000 tonnes, driven by strong growth in North Africa and overall global demand.
Morocco’s export volumes soared by around 90 % year-on-year to approximately 141,000 tonnes, enabling the country to overtake traditional leaders and claim the continent’s top spot in avocado exports for the first time.
The export decline in 2025 compounds recent structural pressures in Kenya avocado industry. While production estimates showed that output dipped in 2024, industry analysts previously projected a modest rebound in 2025, supported by expanded acreage and improved agronomic practices.
Domestic production was expected to rise by approximately 4 % as farmers planted more trees and improved yields per hectare.
However, export performance is shaped by more than just production. Regulatory interventions have also influenced trade flows. In late 2025, Kenya’s Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) suspended avocado shipments by sea to safeguard quality and market access, limiting some consignments to air freight during key months.
This policy, aimed at preventing immature fruit from entering international markets, has compounded logistical pressures but reflects long-standing concerns about quality assurance standards for export consignments.
Despite these setbacks, Kenya remains a huge player in the global avocado market. It consistently ranks among the world’s top producers, supplying a mix of Hass, Fuerte, and other varieties.
Smallholder farmers across key counties such as Murang’a, Kiambu, and Nakuru continue to expand avocado cultivation as both a cash crop and a livelihood strategy, contributing significantly to rural incomes and foreign exchange earnings.
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