NAIROBI, Kenya
Kenya is expected to ride on the back of rapid economic growth projected for Africa in the next four decades to emerge as a global economic powerhouse. Economists project that the country will reap from a mix of factors that include a stronger democracy and political stability, improved conditions for doing business, the mobile telecommunication revolution and better human capital, to achieve this feat.
According to Charles Robertson, the global chief economist at Renaissance Capital and lead author of the book ‘The Fastest Billion – The Story Behind Africa’s Economic Revolution’, by 2048, Kenya’s economy is expected to be larger than the current size of Switzerland, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea and Mexico. At the moment, Mexico is the tenth largest economy globally.
Speaking during the Nairobi launch of the book, Mr Robertson said that the mobile phone growth is likely to accelerate economic growth in Africa, adding that there have been half a billion mobile phone SIM cards sold in Africa over the last seven years. “This is in a continent where only a few years ago everyone thought was too poor for people to have mobile phones,” said Charles Robertson, the global chief economist at Renaissance Capital and lead author of ‘The Fastest Billion – The Story Behind Africa’s Economic Revolution’.
He argued that Africa’s economic growth would be similar to that witnessed in Asia, noting that at the moment, Africa is attracting more foreign direct investment than India and Bangladesh. Dr David Ndii, the managing director of Africa Economics, said that the future for Africa looked promising, having managed to overcome the twin challenges that held it back.
“One of the things that held Africa back and which was a strategic mistake by independence leaders was focusing on economic development as a priority instead of political development. The other reason that delayed economic takeoff was failure to invest in developing human capital. We are now seeing that the key dividends that the continent needs are now in place,” Dr Ndii added.
Yvonne Mhango, the sub-Saharan Africa Economist at Renaissance Capital, and one of the book’s authors, said that while Africa is a diverse continent with different countries, they all are experiencing growth. “There is an undeniable momentum of change across the continent,” Ms Mhango added. The economists noted that African democracies are gradually becoming stronger and corruption is going down. One of the indicators of this progress was the few African countries that are classified as ‘failed states’.
Dr Ndii said that even countries that are considered volatile still attracted investment since the ‘failed states’ index was based on events that are picked by the media. “Strong democracies are dominating in Africa, while weak autocracies are the minority,” Mr Robertson argued, adding that: “As countries get richer, they get better behaved and less corrupt. We get better when there is more money to go around. The best way to reduce corruption is by countries becoming richer and this is by attracting investment”.
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