Raila Odinga’s Last Dance? In Addis, His Biggest Gamble Yet Unfolds

So much has been said about the political future of Raila Odinga should he lose the Africa Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, and so little about if he wins.

Last evening SADC, the 16-member southern Africa group comprising Angola, Botswana, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo (in EAC too), Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania (also a member of EAC), Zambia and Zimbabwe, has asked its members to vote for Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato, essentially risking 16 votes for Baba.

But, what if, despite the setbacks, the back-stabbing and diplomatic conmanship, Raila clinches this thing? I’m sitting here, sipping the stiffest barley-bree, and and it is telling me that, that would be the grandest of political plot twists, like an old warrior finally trading his sword for a diplomat’s pen.

A man whose career has been a masterclass in resilience, Raila has spent decades chasing power only to have it slip through his fingers time and time again. Yet here he is, on the brink of something even grander: not just leading a nation, but shaping a continent.

Victory would be poetic. Oh yes, it’d be. Raila has always cast himself as a pan-Africanist, a believer in unity, democracy, and economic integration. As AUC chair, he could finally put his ideology to the test, tackling Africa’s perennial challenges of weak institutions, fractured economies, and leaders who refuse to leave.

Whether he could reform the AU’s often sluggish bureaucracy is another matter, but if anyone knows how to navigate political quicksand, it’s Raila.

For Kenya, his win would be a diplomatic jackpot. Nairobi would gain an insider’s seat at the AU’s high table, influencing everything from trade to security. And for Africa? Well, it might just get a chairman with both the fire of an activist and the patience of a statesman, which on these shores is a rare combination.

But what if he loses? Would Raila’s political star finally dim? If history has taught us anything, it’s that Raila is like a cat with infinite lives; always re-emerging, always reinventing.

Yet, at 79, time is no longer on his side. The juice of revolution that made him is all but gone, and so a loss could mean the final curtain on an extraordinary political journey. Either way, Raila’s bid for AUC chair is more than a personal ambition; it’s the stuff of legend. Whether he ascends to continental leadership or retreats into history, the man remains, as ever, unbowed.

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