Analysis: Raila walking a tight rope as Mudavadi rises

The rivalry between Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga and his deputy Musalia Mudavadi over the mode to nominate the party’s presidential flag bearer threatens to tear apart Kenya’s once formidable political party into pieces. Since Mudavadi showed great zeal and started traversing the country to lure delegates in readiness for the ODM nominations for in which he has categorically declared interest, his campaign spin doctors threw the spanners into the works, jolting Raila’s chances of being an automatic nominee.

The two have publicly differed over whether the party should go to the nomination using delegates’ conference meeting in Nairobi as proposed by the Prime Minister or go the county nomination way as advocated by Mudavadi. And although Raila has tried to downplay the revolt within the party, it will be a matter of time when it explodes further.

Sources say matters reached crescendo sometimes last year when ODM lost the Ikolomani by-election to Dr. Boni Khalwale, a strong critic of Mudavadi and ODM. The loss is said to have angered the top echelons in the party who have secretly been plotting to ouster Mudavadi as Raila’s number two in the party hierarchy and as his deputy prime minister. Of the emerging development in ODM, anti-Raila crusaders are the most likely beneficiaries should there be any fall-out in the party following the internal feud.

The G7 outfit comprising Vice President Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta and Willian Ruto have ringed an onslaught on Raila like wild animals ready to devour. It was as a result of this that Raila this week took a swipe at the Vice President for allegedly ganging up with Uhuru Kenyata and William Ruto ostensibly to block him from ascending the biggest office on the land.

But political analysts saw this as a ploy by the PM to divert attention from the intense siege and pressure he is subjected to in his own party by his deputy. Despite Raila’s swipe at Kalonzo, the Vice President has maintained a steady following and relationship with the duo and stands shoulders above Raila should he (Kalonzo) be endorsed by the G7 as its flag bearer.

Although Uhuru and Ruto have been indicted by the ICC, Kalonzo exhibits the qualities of a person who can not run away from a friend just because he is trouble. Kenya is indeed, at this point in her political emancipation, desirous of a leader who will heal the wounds of 2007-2008 and bring the nation under one umbrella and as the likely heir apparent to Kibaki with a heartbeat away from State House, Kalonzo counts himself on his impeccable, untainted track record and incorruptible record spanning over two decades and as a non controversial leader.

The recent poll results as tabulated graphically represented a two-fold contrasting scenario. One represented Raila to be dropping from 48% when he enjoyed support to 31% while Kalonzo’s appeared to be rising as of December last year. The infighting in ODM is therefore likely to dent him a serious if he decides to go the delegate’s conference way against a majority of the counties. As Raila continues to drop in the score miserably, those to benefit from the gains are definitely the G7 axis of the political divide.

Translated, this means that should Mudavadi continue with his crusade for county nominations as opposed to Raila’s favoured delegate’s conference, there is likely to be an imminent split in the party which further jolts Raila’s ambitions as it renders him a devastating blow in his bid to the presidency. This would see each go his on way, marking the end of ODM as a formidable party, something Raila has denied vehemently.

But Mudavadi has been categorical that he will not relent in his quest for the party’s nominations for its presidential candidate to be done at the county level. This could have been reason why the premier, in a rare outburst, criticized the vice president for the alliance with Kenyatta and Ruto to shut him out of State house. There is no love lost between Raila, Uhuru and Ruto. Kalonzo will need to reassert himself with weekly county tours, and literally trekking and traversing the country’s terrain to meet the people and endear himself to the people which will be an added advantage.

This will politically weaken Raila’s presidential ambitions and poke more firewood in the ODM’s tent which is already on fire. This will be put the duo in ODM on their toes as Raila’s ratings tumble at the gains of G7 and Mudavadi as the person to watch in the party. This scenario also gives Mudavadi an edge in central province where Raila’s recent tour on campaign mission to lure the kikuyu to support him did not go down well.

It is a known fact that Mudavadi enjoys good rapport among the elite in Central province and having had roots in the community, the Coast where he has been campaigning, and the Kalenjn community, his younger mother home from, among other areas, Raila will require a miracle to beat Mudavadi. This gives the G7, especially the trio a chance to settle on a single presidential candidate to face the ODM candidate but with the emerging divisions in the party and Mudavadi seemingly not ready to relent, G7 should be ready to reap from the spoils after the fallout if any between Raila and Mudavadi.

Those who know Mudavadi too well say the man is vindictive and easily forgives. One man was quoted as saying he is such a shrewd politician who could call you in his office, gives you money but discreetly send thugs to rob you of the same. Raila tour of central province was therefore a desperate move to lure the Kikuyu community. His visit to former minister Njenga Karume home was a clear pointer to the panic in his camp. Mudavadi’s underground network in central is said to be giving Raila sleepless nights. He is regarded among the Kikuyu community as the most sober in ODM were the reigns of power to go to Western Kenya.

But when word leaked out into Raila’s camp, it sent chills down the spine of his diehard supporters and strategists who swung into action immediately to plan the central province tour by the Premier. Other pundits opine that the duo of Kalonzo as President and Mudavadi as his vice is the panacea that the country needs to fix its political jinx but how possible that can be is everyone’s guess.

Although Raial has tried to state that the differences between his late father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta’s father Jomo Kenyatta were ideological, this did did more harm than good to the prime minister as he did not explain the differences between himself and Uhuru Kenyatta, if any. Analysts feel there is something up the sleeves as Raila is in sheer panick after it emerged that the t kikuyu community would not be comfortable with his presidency prompting to state that to talk about it recently.

This desperate mood comes into play on the heels of the recent visit to Kisumu by President Kibaki during the opening of the Kisumu international Airport Raila’s lieutenants beseeched the president on two issues. To declare Raila Tosha, payback time as it was reported and name the airport in honour of Raila’s father. The president’s silence on these two issues has sent considerable panic in Raila camp of the presidency being illusive to him just like his late father.

So what might have happened since the Raila Njamba of 2002 homecoming victory party for Narc under Kibaki.in central? Could this have been the reason for the recent central province tour to try to reclaim his status of Njamba but which still is a tall order for Raila and an illusion.

It is a tight rope for the prime minister and this time round for him to think of bucketing the Kikuyu community support would be like squeezing water from a stone. One of the Mps who accompanied Kibaki to Kisumu where he claimed that Kibaki supported Raila had his car burned when he returned home, which speaks volumes.

LUCHEBELELI is a journalist based in Nairobi. He can be reached at email: [email protected]