1. Prevailing Weather Conditions
Light to moderate rainfall has been reported in several places across the country for the past six days marking the onset of the long rains season. Northwestern parts of the country however remained dry. Occasional heavy to very heavy rains were also reported in some areas. Tuthu, Meru, Kangema and Karurumo in central Kenya; Lunza and Shikoti in western Kenya and Mombasa at the coast received more than 40mm in 24 hours.
The most intense rainfall occurred at Tuthu that recorded 85mm in 24 hrs on March 23 2015. Other notable heavy rainfall events occurred at Kakamega that recorded 37.8mm on March 22 while Marsabit in the Northeast had 36.5mm on March 24 2015.
2. Forecast for the next six day period: March 27 to April 1 2015
The forecast for the next six days (March 27 to April 1 2015) indicates that the rainfall being experienced over several parts of the country is likely to continue for the next six days although with reduced intensities in northern parts, much of the eastern sector of the country and western Kenya.
The expected pertinent rainfall patterns for the next six days are as follows:
• Heavy rainfall is likely to occur over parts of western Wajir, southern Marsabit and north-eastern parts of Samburu as well as areas around Mt. Elgon on the 1st day (March 27 2015) of the forecast period;
• Moderate rainfall (10 – 20 mm of rainfall in 24 hours) is expected to be maintained in South Nyanza, central Kenya and Nairobi area for much of the forecast period;
• Rainfall activities are expected to reduce in the northern parts, eastern sector and western parts of the country. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to reduce over most parts of the country due to increased cloud cover.
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