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El Nino weather guide for all the counties

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The 2015 short rains (October – December) are likely to be enhanced in most parts of the country with varied levels of impacts in the socio-economic sectors. In some parts of the rains are expected to continue into early 2016. The distribution is also expected to be good both in time and space. While the heavy rains may cause disruptions, some sectors may reap maximum benefits from the expected good rains depending on their levels of preparedness.

Rainfall performance of the “short rains” (October-November-December (OND)) 2015 season will be driven by the evolving El Niño conditions coupled with the warming of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean adjacent to the East African coastline. Much of the country is likely to experience highly enhanced rainfall that is likely to cause serious flooding over various flood prone parts of the country. However, there are a few regions that are likely to experience just normal rainfall with a tendency to above normal.

It is expected that most parts of the country will receive enhanced rainfalls during the next rainfall season of October to December 2015. The rains may extend into January 2016 in some parts of the country. It is likely that extreme events related heavy rainfall like floods, land and mudslides might occur in areas with increased likelihood of enhanced rainfall.

Seasonal outlook

Areas likely to receive above-normal rainfall (highly enhanced rainfall) include, Nairobi County and the following:

Western: (Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma, etc.); Nyanza Counties (Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Nyamira, Migori, Kisii, etc;

Rift Valley: Kericho, Nandi, Bomet, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nakuru, Narok, Laikipia, Kajiando, Samburu, Elgeyo Marakwet etc.;

North Eastern: (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa,Isiolo etc.);

Coast: Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Tana River, Taita Taveta),

Central Kenya: Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyandarua).

 Eastern Kenya: Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Embu, Tharaka, Isiolo, Marsabit).

These areas are shown in dark green colour in Figure below

The areas likely to receive near-normal rainfall with a tendency to above-normal (enhanced rainfall) include: Turkana and northern parts of West Pokot. These areas are shown in light green colour in Figure 3

Onset and cessation dates

Nyanza and Western: Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Nyamira, Migori, Kisii,   Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma etc. In these counties, the onset will not be markedly clear as the occasional rains in September are expected to continue into the first week of October. The rains are likely to continue into January 2016

Northern Rift Valley: The onset in the Northwestern parts of the country (Turkana, West Pokot counties etc.) is expected during the second to third week of October while cessation is expected in the third to fourth week of the December.

 Central, Northern and Northeastern Counties: Central Highlands (Meru, Embu, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nanyuki etc); Nairobi area (Dagoretti, Kabete, Eastleigh etc); and Northeastern Kenya (Moyale, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit) are expected to experience their onsets in the first to second week of October. The rains are likely to extend into January 2016 over the central districts while ceasing during the third to fourth week of December over the Northeastern districts.

Central Rift Valley: These areas areas (Nakuru, Narok, Nyahururu etc) are likely to experience the onset during the first to second week of October. The rains are likely to extend into January 2016, especially in the Narok and Kajiado areas;

Southern and Coast: The southeastern lowlands (Voi, Taveta, Makindu, Tana River) are likely to realise the onset during the second to third week of October. The cessation is expected during the last week of December. Some areas may, however, continue receiving rainfall well into January 2016; 

The Coastal Strip: Onset over the Coastal strip (Lamu, Malindi, Mombasa, Kilifi, Mtwapa Msambweni, Lungalunga, etc) is expected during the first to second week of October and cessation during the fourth week of December.

NEXT READ: TAKE THESE STEPS TO AVOID BEING CAUGHT UP IN EL NINO CHAOS

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